Research scientist at the Center for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture – CEPAGRI at the University of Campinas – Unicamp where he coordinates the Earth System Science Laboratory. His research interests are focused on climate change ecology, land-use change, ecosystem services, impacts of climate change on biodiversity, earth system modeling and sustainability science. Coordinator of the Amazon-FACE program: elevated atmospheric CO2 experiment and its effects on the ecology of the Amazon rainforest. Contributing author to IPCC's 6th assessment report, lead author of the Science Panel for the Amazon, and member of the scientific committee of the AIMES (Analysis, Integration and Modeling of the Earth System) project.
Abstract: The Amazon as a showcase on the interplay between CO2 effects, LUC and carbon dynamics
D. M. LAPOLA
Earth System Science Laboratory - LabTerra, Center for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture - CEPAGRI, University of Campinas – UNICAMP, Av. Andre Tosello 209 Cid. Universitaria, Campinas SP 13083-886 Brazil
In this presentation I show the indissociable relation between land-use change, CO2 effects and carbon dynamics in the Amazon anthrome. I explore how uncertainties in the region’s major anthropogenic processes, namely deforestation, forest degradation, climate change and CO2 fertilization, are shaping the existence of the world’s largest tropical forest. Amazon deforestation rates have unexpectedly rebounded in the last 10 years, whereas forest degradation, although more uncertain, seems to affect a forest area and result in carbon emissions of the same magnitude as deforestation. On the other hand, climatic extremes and/or a saturation of CO2 fertilization effect have reduced the carbon sink strength of untouched Amazon forests in 30% since the 1990’s, with related uncertainties to be addressed in the upcoming AmazonFACE (Free-Air CO2 Enrichment) experiment in central Amazon. Altogether, these processes may be pushing the Amazon anthrome closer to the so-called tipping point, with potentially serious consequences for the global climate, socioeconomics, and biodiversity. Finally, I argue how uncertainties related to CO2 effects and land tenure may be decisive for afforestation, REDD+ and BECCS projects in the region.
